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Percent of Milk Cows in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will milk cows face?

Volume:
$1,595

35% to 44%

 - Polymarket

35% to 44% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for milk cows inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national milk cows inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for milk cows inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for milk cows inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national milk cows inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for milk cows inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the milk cow drought market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the percentage of milk cows affected by drought as of the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in new information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $295. Total volume for this market is $1,595. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of where traders believe the outcome will land, offering insight into collective predictions.

Currently, it’s important to consider that analyst forecasts for agricultural conditions several years out are subject to significant uncertainty. This market allows for a continuously updated assessment of probabilities as new data emerges. While expert opinions provide valuable context, they often struggle to adapt to unforeseen events like shifts in weather patterns or changes in farming practices. The aggregated wisdom of traders in this market may offer a more dynamic and responsive prediction compared to static analyst forecasts, reflecting the latest available information and collective insight.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcome percentages. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a real-time forecast. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand for shares in a particular outcome increasing its price and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the percentage of milk cows experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 6, 2026, will be determined by data released from a reputable agricultural reporting agency. The final reported percentage will be the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market, providing a clear and objective resolution based on real-world data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 8, 2026. Major weather events, such as prolonged droughts or unusually heavy rainfall in key dairy-producing regions, would be primary drivers. Changes in government policies related to water usage or agricultural subsidies could also impact the market. Furthermore, reports on herd health, feed availability, and overall agricultural economic conditions will be closely watched by traders. Any significant shifts in these areas could lead to substantial movements in the odds within this market.