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Percent of Hogs in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will hogs have?

Volume:
$1,236

15% to 24%

 - Polymarket

15% to 24% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hogs inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hogs inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hogs inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hogs inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hogs inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hogs inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the hog drought market tracks the current odds of various percentage ranges for the proportion of hogs affected by drought conditions in October 2026. It displays the implied probabilities for each outcome, allowing traders to see where the crowd is placing its bets. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $528, and the total market volume, which stands at $1,236. This provides a snapshot of market activity and interest in this specific prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of different drought percentages affecting hogs. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on statistical models and expert opinion. It's common to see discrepancies between these sources, as markets incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated based on new data and participant perspectives. This market, like others, provides a unique 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective on future events, potentially identifying signals missed by conventional analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. The price of each share reflects the market's current probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the percentage of hogs affected by drought conditions is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final outcome will be based on official data released by relevant agricultural authorities, providing a transparent and objective assessment of the drought’s impact. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the resolved outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major weather events, such as prolonged heat waves or unexpected rainfall in key hog-producing regions, would be primary drivers. Changes in agricultural policy related to water usage or drought mitigation could also shift the odds. Furthermore, reports from agricultural organizations regarding crop conditions and livestock health will be closely watched. Any updates regarding the overall severity and geographical extent of drought conditions will likely cause movement in this market as traders adjust their predictions.