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Percent of Hogs in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will hogs have?

Volume:
$100

15% to 24%

 - Polymarket

15% to 24% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:54 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hogs inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hogs inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hogs inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hogs inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hogs inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hogs inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the hog drought market tracks the current odds of various percentage ranges for the proportion of hogs affected by drought conditions in October 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $90. The total volume traded on this market is $100. This allows users to monitor market sentiment and trading activity related to this specific agricultural forecast.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of different drought percentages impacting hog populations. These probabilities are generated by traders actively buying and selling contracts, representing their individual beliefs. Comparing this to analyst forecasts, it's important to note that analysts often rely on models and historical data, while this market incorporates real-time information and a wider range of perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or differing interpretations of available data regarding the potential severity of drought conditions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when they match. The price of a contract representing a specific percentage range reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is dynamic and responds to new information and shifts in sentiment, offering a forward-looking assessment of drought impacts on hog populations. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official percentage of hogs impacted by drought during the week of October 13, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by relevant agricultural authorities and will reflect the proportion of the US hog population experiencing drought conditions as defined by established drought monitoring indices. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting increased or decreased precipitation in key hog-producing regions, would be major drivers. Reports on current drought conditions from the US Drought Monitor and similar agencies will also be closely watched. Additionally, any news regarding feed availability, hog herd health, or government interventions related to drought relief could move the market. Unexpected shifts in these factors could lead to significant price adjustments as traders update their predictions.