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Percent of Hay in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What percent of hay will be in drought?

Volume:
$741

55% or more

 - Polymarket

55% or more - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55% or more

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hay acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hay acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hay acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hay acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hay acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hay acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the hay drought market dashboard provides a real-time view of trader sentiment regarding the percentage of hay impacted by drought conditions as of the week of October 6, 2026. You'll find the current odds reflecting the probability of different percentage ranges, a price history chart illustrating how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $290. Total volume for this market is $741. This allows participants to quickly assess the market's activity and potential trading opportunities related to agricultural conditions.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those projections are not consistently available for this precise timeframe and metric. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes, potentially offering a more dynamic and up-to-date view than static analyst reports on hay conditions and drought impact.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders expressing their beliefs about the percentage of hay affected by drought through their trading activity.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage of hay impacted by drought will be determined by official data released by relevant agricultural authorities and verified against credible public sources. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the final reported percentage. The market will close prior to this date to allow for final settlement calculations.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves or unexpected rainfall in key hay-producing regions, would be key catalysts. Official drought declarations or revisions by government agencies, as well as reports from agricultural organizations detailing hay crop conditions, could also drive price movements. Any significant changes in agricultural commodity prices or broader economic factors impacting farming practices could also influence trader sentiment and affect the price of contracts in this market.