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Percent of Hay in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will be reported?

Volume:
$45

45% to 54%

 - Polymarket

45% to 54% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:54 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hay acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hay acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hay acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for hay acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national hay acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for hay acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the hay drought market displays the current odds of various percentage ranges for hay impacted by drought conditions in the week of October 13, 2026. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, along with the total volume traded, currently at $45, and the 24-hour volume, which is $45. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how the market has priced in new information over time. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different drought levels affecting hay production.

Currently, it's important to note that the prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket. These odds may differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on statistical models and expert opinion. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of available data. If analyst forecasts predict a significantly different percentage of hay impacted by drought than what is priced into this market, it could present an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on the perceived mispricing. It's crucial to consider both perspectives when forming your own view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a higher percentage of hay will be affected by drought, they will buy contracts representing those outcomes, driving up their price and lowering the price of contracts representing lower percentages.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported percentage of hay affected by drought conditions during the week of October 13, 2026, as determined by a reputable agricultural data source. The specific percentage range that corresponds to the winning outcome will be the one closest to the reported figure. Traders should monitor relevant agricultural reports and news sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the final result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Key indicators include updated drought monitor reports from organizations like the U.S. Drought Monitor, weather forecasts predicting rainfall or continued dry conditions in major hay-producing regions, and reports on hay yields and inventory levels. Unexpected shifts in weather patterns, such as a prolonged heatwave or a sudden increase in precipitation, would likely have a substantial impact. Additionally, any significant changes in agricultural policy or trade agreements could also influence the market’s price as traders adjust their expectations.