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Percent of Cotton in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What cotton drought percentage will be reported?

Volume:
$573

55% or more

 - Polymarket

55% or more - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55% or more

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cotton acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cotton acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cotton acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cotton acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cotton acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cotton acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the cotton drought market tracks the current odds of the outcome, allowing traders to see implied probabilities. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how sentiment has shifted over time. Additionally, you can view the 24-hour volume, which indicates how much trading activity is occurring. Currently, the total volume for this market is $573, with $231 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a snapshot of market interest and liquidity.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts. If analysts predict a specific percentage of cotton acreage will be affected by drought, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what degree. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not yet considered by analysts, or vice versa, offering a valuable check on conventional wisdom.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people believe the percentage of cotton in drought will be higher, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The percentage of U.S. cotton acreage experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 6, 2026, will be the determining factor. The resolution will rely on data from established sources that monitor drought conditions, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor these reports as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major weather patterns, such as the development of El Niño or La Niña, are key catalysts. Unexpected shifts in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting increased or decreased rainfall in major cotton-growing regions, would likely impact trading activity. Government reports on crop conditions and water availability will also be closely watched. Finally, any significant news regarding irrigation restrictions or water management policies could influence the perceived likelihood of widespread drought conditions.