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Percent of Cotton in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What cotton drought percentage will be reported?

Volume:
$30

55% or more

 - Polymarket

55% or more - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:54 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55% or more

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cotton acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cotton acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cotton acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cotton acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cotton acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cotton acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the cotton drought market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the percentage of U.S. cotton lands experiencing drought conditions as of the week of October 13, 2026. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $30. The total volume traded on this market is $30, indicating the level of interest and participation from forecasters.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd. These odds often differ from initial analyst forecasts or polls, as this market incorporates new information and changing perspectives in real-time. While analysts may provide initial estimates, the dynamic nature of this market allows for a more fluid and potentially more accurate prediction as we approach the relevant week. It’s common to see the market adjust as new data regarding weather patterns and agricultural reports become available, potentially diverging from static expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final percentage of cotton lands in drought. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the market’s liquidity—indicated by the trading volume—influences how quickly prices respond to new information. Higher volume generally leads to more efficient price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the relevant percentage of cotton lands experiencing drought is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage will be sourced from established agricultural data providers and government agencies. The resolution will reflect the official drought conditions reported for the week of October 13, 2026, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves or unexpected rainfall in key cotton-growing regions, would be primary drivers. Updates from the U.S. Drought Monitor, as well as reports from the USDA regarding crop conditions, will also be closely watched. Any significant changes in long-range weather forecasts or shifts in agricultural policy could also lead to price movements. Furthermore, unexpected developments impacting global cotton demand or supply could indirectly affect perceptions of drought risk and, therefore, this market.