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Percent of Corn in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought % will corn face?

Volume:
$645

15% to 24%

 - Polymarket

15% to 24% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for corn acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national corn acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for corn acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for corn acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national corn acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for corn acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US corn drought market tracks the current implied probability of the percentage of the US corn crop experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find a price feed reflecting trader expectations, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $296. The total volume traded in this market is $645. This allows users to see how confidence in different outcomes is evolving as new information becomes available and to gauge market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for agricultural conditions. While analysts rely on models and historical data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time assessments of factors that might influence drought levels. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations; analyst forecasts can be slow to adjust to new information, while this market can be subject to short-term sentiment swings. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final percentage of corn acreage in drought. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism where changes in sentiment and new information are quickly incorporated into the market's valuation of different scenarios.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage of US corn acreage experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 6, 2026, as reported by a reputable agricultural authority, will determine the outcome. Traders will be able to see the official result and how it corresponds to the different share values within this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and established agricultural reporting standards.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Key weather patterns, including the development of El Niño or La Niña, and long-range precipitation forecasts will be closely watched. Unexpected changes in agricultural policy or reports of significant crop damage due to pests or disease could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any official reports from the US Drought Monitor or the USDA regarding current drought conditions will likely influence the price of shares in this market, as traders adjust their expectations accordingly.