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Percent of Corn in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What drought % will corn face?

Volume:
$102

15% to 24%

 - Polymarket

15% to 24% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:53 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for corn acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national corn acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for corn acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for corn acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national corn acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for corn acreage with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US corn drought market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the percentage of the US corn crop experiencing drought conditions as of the week of October 13, 2026. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $88. Total volume for this market is $102, indicating the overall interest and trading activity. This allows participants to monitor the collective prediction and assess market sentiment.

Currently, the collective prediction in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing predictions as probabilities. It’s common to see differences between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Examining these differences can reveal insights into market confidence and potential blind spots in conventional analysis regarding the future of US corn production.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring; higher prices indicate a greater perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders exchange views, creating a real-time assessment of the potential percentage of corn acreage affected by drought. This mechanism allows for efficient price discovery based on the collective intelligence of market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the percentage of US corn acreage experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 13, 2026, as reported by a recognized and authoritative source, will determine the outcome. The market will then settle based on that verified percentage, rewarding those who accurately predicted the drought’s impact on the corn crop. The final result will be publicly available following the resolution process.

Several signals and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting drought conditions in key corn-growing regions, would likely cause movement. Updates from the US Drought Monitor, agricultural reports from the USDA, and unexpected shifts in global commodity prices could also impact trading activity. Any news related to irrigation practices, crop yields, or government policies affecting corn production could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations for the percentage of corn affected by drought in October 2026.