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Percent of Cattle in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will cattle face?

Volume:
$714

45% to 54%

 - Polymarket

45% to 54% - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the cattle drought market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the percentage of U.S. cattle located in areas experiencing drought conditions as of the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $238. Total volume for this market is $714. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to this specific prediction.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect the collective prediction of traders regarding the percentage of cattle in drought areas. These predictions are often compared to forecasts from agricultural analysts and government reports, such as those from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, data interpretations, or the incorporation of unique information by market participants. It's important to note that this market represents a forward-looking estimate, potentially factoring in events not yet captured in traditional analyses.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective wisdom of its participants concerning the future percentage of cattle affected by drought.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the percentage of U.S. cattle located in drought-stricken areas will be determined based on data released by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a widely recognized and trusted source for drought information. The final reported percentage will be used to determine which outcome in this market is correct, and shares will be settled accordingly.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Changes in precipitation patterns across major cattle-producing regions are key, with prolonged drought conditions likely to increase the predicted percentage. Conversely, substantial rainfall could lower it. Updates to drought classifications from the U.S. Drought Monitor, reports on cattle herd sizes and locations, and even long-range weather forecasts could all influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade or analyze this prediction.