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Percent of Cattle in drought - week of October 13, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will cattle face?

Volume:
$30

45% to 54%

 - Polymarket

45% to 54% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:55 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for cattle inventory in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national cattle inventory in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 13, 2026 is published by October 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before October 13, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the cattle drought market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the percentage of U.S. cattle located in areas experiencing drought conditions as of the week of October 13, 2026. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $30. Total volume for this market is $30. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to this specific prediction.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different perspective than some traditional analyst forecasts regarding the potential impact of ongoing drought conditions on U.S. cattle. While some analysts predict a continued, significant drought impact, this market’s pricing suggests a different level of confidence in that outcome. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can incorporate information and perspectives not always reflected in standard reports. This provides a unique signal compared to typical expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, and are a direct reflection of the collective intelligence of those participating in the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing perceptions.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the percentage of U.S. cattle located in drought-stricken areas during the week of October 13, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor, will determine the outcome. The U.S. Drought Monitor provides a weekly map of drought conditions across the country, and this data will be used to verify the final result of this market. Traders should monitor this data source as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly move this market before its resolution. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting increased or decreased rainfall in key cattle-producing regions, would be major catalysts. Unexpected government policy announcements related to water management or agricultural subsidies could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, reports on cattle herd sizes and health, as well as any significant shifts in feed costs, could all influence trading activity and price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in market sentiment.