TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 10:43 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Pepsi's point-of-sale transactions for a specific month compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the measured growth exceeds various negative or positive percentage thresholds. Data comes from a panel that collects receipt information from both physical stores and online platforms.
All markets in this event rely on the Carbon Arc Pepsi Point of Sale Growth index for August 2026 to determine their outcomes. Each market has a different threshold, ranging from above -14% to above 2%, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the reported index value exceeds the respective threshold. The index reflects year-over-year changes in Pepsi's point-of-sale spending, where a value of 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 show growth, and values below 100 indicate a decline. The index is calculated using data from in-store and online purchases captured through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the previous year. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available. Importantly, the determination for all markets will be based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with or officially connected to Pepsi or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Currently, this market suggests a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While some analysts may project steady or moderate growth based on historical trends and market conditions, traders on Kalshi are pricing in a distinct set of expectations. The gap between these views can shift as new sales data, consumer sentiment surveys, or macroeconomic indicators emerge, making this market a dynamic barometer of real-time trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on officially released sales figures and verified industry data, closing the market based on objective, publicly available results.
Key signals include early retail sales reports, consumer confidence updates, and any major marketing announcements from Pepsi. Economic shifts, like changes in consumer spending or commodity prices, could also influence trader sentiment. As Sep 14, 2026 approaches, any surprise data releases or industry news will likely cause rapid price adjustments in this market.