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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)
kalshi

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)

Volume:
$10,695

Above 5

 - Kalshi

Above 5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,261
N/A
N/A
$1,140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,257
N/A
N/A
$1,721
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,247
N/A
N/A
$1,814
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. During a specific week, observers will monitor whether traffic volumes exceed certain thresholds. The outcome depends on recorded daily transit numbers, reflecting potential shifts in shipping patterns due to geopolitical or economic factors.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the highest single-day count of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds specified thresholds between August 31 and September 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (above 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 calls). For any given market to resolve to Yes, the peak daily count within the period must surpass its respective threshold. The expiration value for all markets is derived from the same data set—the maximum daily count during the specified dates. Resolution for all markets will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring all data is fully available before final determination.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for this event, along with 24-hour volume of $980. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of peak traffic through the strait during the specified period, updated in real time as bets are placed.

Unlike traditional polling averages, which rely on public surveys, this market reflects the real-time bets of traders who may have access to a wider range of information sources. While polls can lag and suffer from sampling errors, this market’s price adjusts instantly to new data, often providing an earlier signal of shifting expectations around traffic conditions in the region.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look to official maritime reports, international news coverage, and authoritative government or agency announcements to determine whether peak traffic thresholds were met during the specified window.

Events such as naval incidents, political tensions, sudden changes in shipping routes, or official announcements from regional powers could shift this market. Traders will also watch for seasonal patterns, economic data affecting cargo volumes, and any disruptions reported by international maritime agencies, all of which may influence expectations for peak traffic levels.