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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/3 - 8/9)
kalshi

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/3 - 8/9)

Volume:
$26,466

Above 5

 - Kalshi

Above 5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,617
N/A
N/A
$1,776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,512
N/A
N/A
$2,832
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,937
N/A
N/A
$1,324
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,478
N/A
N/A
$1,239
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,785
N/A
N/A
$1,047
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$792
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil shipments. During a specified week, observers will monitor whether the peak daily vessel transits surpass various thresholds. The outcome depends on official reports from a trusted maritime data source.

Kalshi

All markets in this event assess whether the highest single-day count of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch between August 3, 2026, and August 9, 2026, exceeds specific numerical thresholds ranging from 5 to 30. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, with the market resolving to 'Yes' only if the recorded peak daily count surpasses its respective threshold. The expiration value for all markets is derived uniformly by identifying the maximum daily transit count within the defined period. Resolution for all markets will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the observation window, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before final determination.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard displays real-time odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume of $1,495. This tool helps traders monitor how market participants price the likelihood of peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity and probability estimates, giving users insight into market sentiment and expectations for this geopolitical event.

Unlike traditional polling averages, this market reflects the aggregated bets of traders who may have access to diverse information sources and real-time data. While polls capture public opinion snapshots, this market can react instantly to geopolitical developments, shipping data, or regional tensions that might influence traffic levels through the strait.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look to official maritime reports, regional transport data, and news sources to determine whether peak traffic thresholds were met during the specified timeframe.

Events such as regional military exercises, oil tanker disruptions, political tensions, or unexpected changes in global shipping patterns could shift expectations and move this market. Traders will also monitor seasonal traffic trends, infrastructure incidents, and any official statements from regional authorities that may affect passage through the strait before Aug 11, 2026.