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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)
kalshi

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)

Volume:
$20,894

Above 5

 - Kalshi

Above 5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,158
N/A
N/A
$1,083
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,811
N/A
N/A
$2,483
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,710
N/A
N/A
$3,039
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,902
N/A
N/A
$777
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$307
N/A
N/A
$233
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks maritime traffic levels through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil shipments. During a specified week, observers will monitor whether the peak daily vessel transits surpass various thresholds. The outcome depends on official data from a reputable international financial institution.

Kalshi

All markets in this event series share the same underlying structure and resolution process. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from above 5 to above 30) that must be exceeded by the highest single-day count of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch during the period from August 24 to August 30, 2026. Regardless of the threshold level, all markets use identical methodology: the expiration value is determined by identifying the maximum daily transit count within that week. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the observation period, ensuring all participants have access to complete and verified data before any market settles.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price trends for this specific event, alongside 24-hour volume of $490. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of peak traffic through the strait during the specified period, with historical data and current top outcome probabilities displayed for reference.

Compared to public polling averages, this market often reflects more nuanced or forward-looking expectations, especially on issues like traffic patterns that may not be captured in traditional surveys. Prediction markets incorporate real-money bets and can react quickly to new data, whereas polls may lag or reflect broader public sentiment rather than specific, measurable outcomes.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will compare official traffic data against the defined thresholds, and the result will be finalized based on widely accessible sources that confirm whether peak traffic occurred during the specified period.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes: geopolitical developments affecting naval passage, unexpected weather events, or reported increases in cargo shipments through the strait. Any official announcements, satellite traffic observations, or regional maritime alerts may also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess the likelihood of hitting peak traffic levels.