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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/10 - 8/16)
kalshi

What will be the peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?

Volume:
$5,698

Above 5

 - Kalshi

Above 5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 18, 2026

Closed: Aug 18, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$874
N/A
N/A
$315
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,928
N/A
N/A
$3,156
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$578
N/A
N/A
$480
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
$299
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

The peak daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the week will indicate whether a single day experiences unusually high shipping activity. Such peaks can occur due to scheduled bulk shipments, temporary disruptions elsewhere, or strategic routing decisions by shipping companies.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specific threshold between August 10, 2026, and August 16, 2026. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count within the period. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the likelihood that daily transit calls will exceed a key threshold between August 10 and 16, 2026. It also displays current 24-hour volume of $572 and historical price trends, letting traders monitor how market sentiment evolves ahead of the resolution date.

Unlike traditional polling averages, which gather public opinions through surveys, this market uses real-money bets to reflect trader expectations about Strait of Hormuz traffic levels. While polls may show general sentiment, this market incorporates financial incentives and up-to-date information, often producing sharper or more volatile odds based on recent geopolitical developments and shipping data.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on official maritime data sources tracking transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz during the August 10–16 window, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Events such as naval exercises, political tensions, or unexpected blockages in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly shift this market. Traders will also watch shipping industry reports, oil tanker schedules, and regional military statements, as any disruption risk tends to increase odds for higher transit volatility. Additionally, broader economic factors affecting shipping routes may influence expectations in the final weeks.