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405,232

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2,693

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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)
kalshi

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)

Volume:
$11,773

Above 5

 - Kalshi

Above 5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$759
N/A
N/A
$542
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,395
N/A
N/A
$2,143
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,123
N/A
N/A
$1,172
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,710
N/A
N/A
$710
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,586
N/A
N/A
$852
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,199
N/A
N/A
$533
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

The volume of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz can fluctuate based on geopolitical tensions, oil demand, and regional stability. Monitoring these transit calls offers insight into maritime activity and potential disruptions in a key global chokepoint. The week in question may see increased or decreased traffic depending on current events and seasonal patterns.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch from July 27 to August 2, 2026, exceeds a specific threshold (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30). The expiration value is the highest daily count within the period, with resolution no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the likelihood of peak traffic occurring between July 27 and August 2, 2026. It also shows 24-hour volume of $713 and historical price trends, letting users monitor how traders value this geopolitical risk event.

Unlike traditional polls, this market reflects trader sentiment weighted by betting behavior rather than voter self-reports. Currently, the implied probability shows a different outlook than recent polling averages, suggesting traders see varying levels of risk around Strait traffic levels. Market odds update continuously as new information emerges, often diverging from slower-moving polls.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing window is July 27 to August 2, 2026, and resolution depends on officially reported traffic figures through the Strait during that period.