TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/31 - 9/6)
kalshi

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/31 - 9/6)

Volume:
$1,182

September 6

 - Kalshi

September 6 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

September 6

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

September 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
No
kalshi

September 5

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$97
Settled
No
kalshi

September 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

September 4

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

September 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The market focuses on identifying which single day within the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 had the highest vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Each day has its own market, resolving based on whether that day had the peak number of transit calls.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the specified date (August 31 or September 1 through 6, 2026) has the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by IMF PortWatch during the week. Daily counts are evaluated from August 31 to September 6, 2026. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day's market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, after complete data becomes available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic peak market dashboard tracks the probability of each day being the peak transit day between August 31 and September 6. It shows current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $368. This real-time view reflects trader sentiment on when traffic will hit its highest point during the specified window.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The day with the highest recorded transit calls during August 31 to September 6 will settle as the winner, closing all positions on Kalshi shortly after verification.

Geopolitical developments, shipping disruptions, or sudden changes in oil tanker routes could shift probabilities. Reports of heightened tensions, sanctions enforcement, or accidents in the region may boost demand for later dates, while diplomatic breakthroughs could favor earlier days. Real-time news and freight data feeds will most influence this market’s price action.