TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/3 - 8/9)
kalshi

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/3 - 8/9)

Volume:
$5,846

August 8

 - Kalshi

August 8 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 9:00 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

August 8

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,580
N/A
N/A
$1,573
Settled
Yes
kalshi

August 4

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,797
N/A
N/A
$793
Settled
No
kalshi

August 3

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
$741
Settled
No
kalshi

August 5

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
$373
Settled
No
kalshi

August 7

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
$349
Settled
No
kalshi

August 6

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
$363
Settled
No
kalshi

August 9

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$343
N/A
N/A
$343
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. During a specified week, each day is evaluated to determine which experiences the highest volume of vessel transits. The outcome reflects whether a particular day achieves this peak, with shared peaks distributing results proportionally.

Kalshi

The event determines whether a specific day between August 3 and August 9, 2026, records the highest number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to one day within this week. All days' transit counts are evaluated collectively after the period ends. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the week’s conclusion, once official data is published. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day’s market resolves to an equal proportional share (1/N), where N is the number of days sharing the peak value.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Strait of Hormuz traffic peak market. It visualizes how traders price the likelihood of each day between August 3 and August 9 being the peak transit day. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity, allowing users to monitor shifts in expectations as new information emerges.

Unlike traditional polling, this market uses trader sentiment to assign probabilities, offering a dynamic and continuously updated view of expectations. While polls gather static public opinion snapshots, prediction market odds reflect real-time betting behavior and can react instantly to breaking news or geopolitical developments influencing Strait of Hormuz traffic forecasts.

This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official traffic counts for the period are verified against credible public sources. The day with the highest recorded transit calls during the specified window will determine the result, closing all positions accordingly.

Geopolitical developments, naval incidents, or sudden changes in shipping patterns could shift expectations and move this market. Statements from regional leaders, altered shipping lane advisories, or unexpected vessel movements may cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will also watch oil prices and regional military activities, as these can influence transit decisions and thus the likelihood of any given day becoming the peak.