TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/24 - 8/30)
kalshi

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/24 - 8/30)

Volume:
$3,514

August 28

 - Kalshi

August 28 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

August 28

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,046
N/A
N/A
$804
Settled
Yes
kalshi

August 26

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$830
N/A
N/A
$523
Settled
No
kalshi

August 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$679
Settled
No
kalshi

August 27

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$451
N/A
N/A
$440
Settled
No
kalshi

August 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

August 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$123
Settled
No
kalshi

August 29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

Identifying the single busiest day for Strait of Hormuz traffic during this week requires precise daily monitoring. The day with peak activity could shift due to scheduling decisions, emergency reroutings, or unexpected demand surges.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if its specified date (August 24 through August 30, 2026) records the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, among all days in that week. If multiple days tie for highest counts, each tied day's market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.

Frequently asked questions

Unlike traditional polls, this market reflects continuous trader sentiment rather than static surveys. While polls may capture public opinion snapshots, this market incorporates real-time trading based on geopolitical analysis, shipping data, and economic indicators. The resulting odds often diverge from polling averages because participants can react instantly to new intelligence or shifting risk perceptions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through a continuous order book where bids and asks converge based on available information about Strait of Hormuz traffic patterns. The current implied probability reflects aggregated expectations about which day will record the highest volume, with liquidity and price efficiency shaped by trader participation and market depth.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing day will be determined by official shipping logs and authoritative maritime traffic analyses, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals include unexpected naval exercises, political tensions among regional powers, or sudden changes in global oil demand that alter shipping routes. Any event impacting vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz — whether diplomatic breakthroughs or security incidents — can shift trader expectations and move this market significantly before it settles.