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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

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30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/17 - 8/23)
kalshi

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/17 - 8/23)

Volume:
$7,968

August 22

 - Kalshi

August 22 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:00 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

August 22

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,323
N/A
N/A
$1,790
Settled
Yes
kalshi

August 23

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,788
N/A
N/A
$1,277
Settled
No
kalshi

August 18

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,036
N/A
N/A
$587
Settled
No
kalshi

August 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
$539
Settled
No
kalshi

August 20

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$486
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
No
kalshi

August 21

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$351
N/A
N/A
$349
Settled
No
kalshi

August 17

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport, during a specific week in August 2026. It focuses on identifying which day within that week sees the highest number of vessel transits, reflecting potential fluctuations in trade dynamics or geopolitical influences on maritime routes.

Kalshi

The event determines whether any given day between August 17 and August 23, 2026, records the highest number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to one specific day within this week. The outcome for each market is 'Yes' if that day has the highest count. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day’s market resolves to a fractional value of 1 divided by the number of tied days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the evaluation period, ensuring complete and verified data availability before final determination.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz traffic peak market dashboard on Kalshi tracks the likelihood of each day between 8/17 and 8/23 being the peak day for traffic through the strait during that week. It shows current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $207 so users can monitor how the market views this important geopolitical indicator.

Unlike traditional polls that sample public opinion, this market uses real-money trading to set its odds. While polls may reflect general expectations, traders in this market consider a wider range of factors including shipping data, geopolitical analysis, and real-time events. As a result, the market odds can diverge from polling averages, often proving more accurate when tangible indicators are involved.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome — in this case, each day of the week as the traffic peak. The current implied probability for each day is shown as a percentage, derived from the price of each contract. This continuous trading process updates odds instantly as new information emerges.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official shipping data and credible news sources verify which day between August 17th and 23rd had the highest traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The peak day is determined by verified counts from maritime authorities and industry reports.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key events include unexpected geopolitical tensions or escalations involving regional powers, sudden changes in oil tanker routes, or major disruptions such as accidents or storms in the strait. Additionally, weekly shipping reports, oil flow data releases, and statements from maritime security agencies often influence trader sentiment and shift odds.