TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/10 - 8/16)
kalshi

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/10 - 8/16)

Volume:
$3,551

August 11

 - Kalshi

August 11 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 18, 2026

Closed: Aug 18, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

August 11

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,425
N/A
N/A
$849
Settled
Yes
kalshi

August 13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,460
N/A
N/A
$1,145
Settled
No
kalshi

August 16

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
No
kalshi

August 14

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
$168
Settled
No
kalshi

August 15

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
No
kalshi

August 10

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

August 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

Determining which specific day within the week sees the highest traffic volume provides insight into daily shipping patterns and immediate geopolitical or operational influences. A clear single peak day offers a definitive outcome, while ties distribute resolution values proportionally among tied days.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the specified date (from August 10 to August 16, 2026) has the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, during the listed week. Daily counts are evaluated across the entire period. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day's market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.

Frequently asked questions

Unlike traditional polling averages that gather public opinion through surveys, this market uses real-money trading to set its odds. While polls might reflect general expectations or sentiment, this market incorporates actual betting behavior, allowing participants to place financial stakes behind their beliefs. As a result, the odds here can diverge from polling averages, especially if new data emerges that shifts trader confidence more rapidly than survey results can capture.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous trading, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate bets placed on each possible day. The market’s price fluctuates based on trading volume and any new information that influences expectations about traffic patterns in the region, capturing the collective wisdom of participants actively engaged in the market.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing day will be determined by official traffic data or authoritative news sources that confirm which day saw the highest volume of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during the specified window, ending any uncertainty for participants.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including geopolitical developments, unexpected disruptions or surges in shipping activity, and official announcements from maritime authorities. Any news that alters expectations about vessel movements — whether due to sanctions, conflicts, or economic factors — may cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their positions based on new information.