TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader conviction, which often diverges from traditional analyst price targets and ratings. While Wall Street analysts may issue longer-term recommendations or price targets, this market focuses on a binary outcome on a single date. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket to consensus analyst sentiment or near-term technical forecasts can reveal whether traders are more or less bullish than the broader research community. Such gaps sometimes signal overlooked catalysts or disagreement about near-term momentum versus fundamental value.
On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing "Up" or "Down" outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, the price adjusts in real time. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether PLTR closes higher or lower on June 2. Polymarket's order-book mechanism means prices can move sharply on large trades or breaking news, and liquidity may vary throughout the trading window leading up to resolution.
The market resolves at Jun 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing PLTR's closing price on June 2 to its opening price that same day. If the stock closes higher, the "Up" outcome wins; if it closes lower or flat, the "Down" outcome prevails. Official closing data from the primary exchange is used to settle the contract. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once the outcome is confirmed and the market is officially resolved.
Several catalysts could shift PLTR's price on June 2. Earnings announcements, guidance changes, or major contract wins typically drive significant moves. Broader market sentiment, tech sector rotation, and macroeconomic data releases also influence the stock. Geopolitical developments affecting government spending or AI adoption may impact Palantir's outlook. Insider trading activity, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and peer performance can sway trader positioning. Short-term technical levels and options expiration dynamics may also create volatility. Monitoring news flow, earnings calendars, and sector trends helps traders assess shifting probabilities as June 2 approaches.