TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on June 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader conviction, which often diverges from traditional analyst price targets and earnings estimates. While Wall Street analysts may publish 12-month outlooks or quarterly guidance, the prediction market distills near-term directional sentiment into a single probability for June 10 specifically. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects near-term momentum or mean reversion relative to consensus views. Prediction markets typically incorporate faster-moving information and real-money incentives, making them a complementary signal to published research.
On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares representing PLTR closing up or down on the specified date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. Shares trade continuously until market close on Jun 10, 2026, with the winning outcome settling at 1 and the losing outcome at 0. Order book depth and recent trades visible on the platform show real-time liquidity and help traders execute at competitive prices.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the close of regular trading on June 10. The outcome is determined by comparing Palantir's closing price on that date to its opening price. Traders who correctly predicted the direction receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution is automatic once official price data is confirmed, ensuring a transparent and timely settlement for all participants.
Key catalysts include earnings announcements, government contract wins or losses, macroeconomic data affecting defense and intelligence spending, and broader tech sector momentum. Palantir's stock is sensitive to geopolitical developments, as its business depends on government demand. Insider trading activity, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and shifts in AI sentiment can also drive intraday volatility. Market-wide events such as Federal Reserve statements or recession fears may push PLTR alongside the broader market, while company-specific news typically has the strongest directional impact on June 10.