TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
25% - 30%
- Kalshi
25% - 30% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 18, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 17, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the share of votes Sharif Street is expected to capture in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Street receives between 25% and 30% of the popular vote—stands at 95.0%, while the probability he receives between 30% and 35% is 3.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported for the primary election. Watch the primary election results on or around May 19, 2027, when the certified vote totals will determine the market outcome.
Kalshi
Sharif Street's vote percentage in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based exclusively on certified/official results, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used. The vote percentage is divided into ranges from below 20% to at least 45%.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader expectations based on available information, including recent polls, candidate momentum, and historical primary results. While polls measure voter intent at a single point in time, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information flow and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. Comparing Kalshi odds to polling averages reveals whether traders expect Street's support to outperform or underperform survey data. Divergences often signal trader skepticism about poll methodology or anticipation of late-breaking developments before the May 19, 2027 primary.
The market resolves on May 19, 2027 following the Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and Sharif Street's final vote percentage as reported by Pennsylvania election authorities. The contract outcome depends on whether Street's actual vote share falls within the specified range or outside it. Traders should monitor official results and any potential recounts or certification delays that could affect final determination.
Key catalysts include endorsements from prominent Pennsylvania Democrats, debate performance, campaign spending levels, and voter turnout patterns in Philadelphia and surrounding areas. Media coverage of Street's legislative record and primary opponents' positioning will influence trader sentiment. Polling releases showing shifts in Street's support, candidate dropouts consolidating votes, and grassroots organizing intensity could trigger significant price movement. Late-breaking scandals, debate moments, or unexpected candidate entries would also reshape market expectations heading into the May 19, 2027 primary.
