TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Chris Rabb, 15-20%
- Kalshi
Chris Rabb, 15-20% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 18, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 17, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the winning margin for Chris Rabb in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—a victory margin between 15% and 20%—stands at 91.0%, while a narrower margin between 10% and 15% is at 4.0%. Resolution will be determined by official primary results. Watch for the Democratic primary election scheduled for 2026 to determine the final margin.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated by comparing the vote share or vote count of a specified candidate against either the runner-up (if the candidate wins) or the winner (if the candidate loses). For percentage-point margins, the calculation is the candidate's vote percentage minus the relevant comparison candidate's vote percentage. For raw vote margins, it is total votes received minus the comparison candidate's total votes. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; no rounding is applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only participant, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. Resolution is based on certified results only. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified results before expiration, the most recent certified results are used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and typically incorporate polling data alongside other signals like fundraising, endorsements, and ground organization. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations about the actual margin outcome. Discrepancies between market odds and polls often indicate traders believe polls underestimate or overestimate a candidate's true winning margin, or that late-breaking developments will shift the final result away from current survey averages.
The PA-03 Democratic primary: margin of victory market resolves on May 19, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official margin between the top two vote-getters in Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary election. The specific outcome depends on which margin bracket the final certified result falls into—such as whether the winner's margin is between 5% and 10%, or exceeds or falls short of that range. Official election results from Pennsylvania authorities determine the final settlement.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from party leaders or influential figures, debate performances, media coverage, and campaign spending announcements. Voter turnout expectations in the district will significantly impact margin predictions. Primary polling releases, especially late-stage surveys, often trigger sharp market repricing as traders update their margin forecasts. Local economic developments, candidate gaffes, or unexpected campaign events can shift momentum. As election day approaches, early voting data and get-out-the-vote operation strength become increasingly important signals for predicting the final margin outcome.
