TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
20% - 25%
- Kalshi
20% - 25% - Kalshi
1W
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 18, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 17, 10:36 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the share of votes Ala Stanford will capture in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Stanford receives between 20% and 25% of the popular vote—stands at 97.0%, while the probability she receives between 25% and 30% is at 2.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported for the primary. Watch for Stanford's campaign momentum and endorsement announcements leading up to the 2026 primary election scheduled for May 2027.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the certified percentage of popular votes received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. The percentage is divided into seven ranges: 0-9.99%, 10-14.99%, 15-19.99%, 20-24.99%, 25-29.99%, 30-34.99%, and 35-100%. Resolution uses only certified/official results, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective assessment of Stanford's vote share, which may diverge from traditional polling averages. Markets incorporate not only current survey data but also trader expectations about campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and late-breaking developments. While polls provide a snapshot of voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets continuously update as new information emerges. Comparing market-implied probabilities to polling trends can reveal whether traders expect Stanford's support to shift between now and the May 2026 primary election.
The market resolves on May 19, 2027, following the Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count reported by Pennsylvania election authorities for Ala Stanford's share of the total primary vote cast in that district. The outcome will be confirmed once all ballots are counted and certified, establishing whether Stanford's final vote percentage falls within the 20–25% range specified in the contract or outside it.
Key catalysts include Stanford's campaign announcements, major endorsements from local or state figures, debate performances, and media coverage of the race. Fundraising reports and spending patterns can signal candidate viability and resource allocation. Primary turnout expectations, demographic shifts in the district, and competing candidates' momentum all influence trader sentiment. Late-breaking scandals, policy announcements, or shifts in national Democratic priorities could reshape expectations around Stanford's vote share. Polling releases closer to May 2026 will provide updated benchmarks against which traders reassess their positions.
