TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Christine Drazan, 5-10%
- Kalshi
Christine Drazan, 5-10% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 30, 12:24 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the winning margin in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, traders currently assess a 98.0% probability that Christine Drazan's margin of victory will fall between 5% and 10%, with a 2.0% probability assigned to a margin between 10% and 15%. The market will resolve based on official results from the Oregon Republican primary. Watch for candidate endorsements and polling data leading up to the primary election scheduled for May 2026, as these factors will likely shape the final margin outcome.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated by comparing the vote share or vote count of a specified candidate against either the runner-up (if the candidate wins) or the winner (if the candidate loses). For percentage-point margins, the calculation is the candidate's vote percentage minus the relevant comparison candidate's vote percentage. For raw vote margins, it is total votes received minus the comparison candidate's total votes. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; no rounding is applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only participant, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. Resolution is based on certified results only. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified results before expiration, the most recent certified results are used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and trader expertise, while polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment. For the Oregon Republican primary margin, market prices reflect traders' assessments of candidate viability, campaign momentum, and ground organization—factors that may not be fully captured in public polling. As the primary date approaches, polling averages typically converge with market odds if both are tracking the same underlying dynamics, though markets may lead or lag depending on information flow and trader conviction.
The market resolves on May 19, 2027, following the Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory—the percentage-point difference between the top two finishers in the primary. Once results are certified by Oregon election authorities, the outcome corresponding to the actual margin is marked correct, and traders holding winning positions receive payouts. The market's resolution hinges on the final, official vote tallies and the calculated spread between the winner and runner-up.
Several catalysts could shift market odds for the Oregon Republican primary margin. Major campaign announcements, candidate endorsements from prominent state figures, and debate performances can reshape trader expectations about frontrunner strength. Polling releases showing shifts in candidate support directly influence margin forecasts. Fundraising reports and media coverage of campaign momentum or scandals may alter perceptions of viability. Turnout indicators, early voting patterns, and ground-game developments closer to the primary date will drive late-stage repricing. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or consolidation of support could dramatically widen or narrow the expected margin.
