TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
40% - 45%
- Kalshi
40% - 45% - Kalshi
1W
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Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 30, 12:22 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks the share of votes Christine Drazan is expected to capture in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary election. Currently, the probability that Drazan receives between 40% and 45% of the popular vote stands at 82.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported by Oregon election officials following the primary. Watch for campaign announcements and polling data leading up to the 2026 primary election, as these will signal shifts in Drazan's expected vote share among Republican voters.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the certified percentage of popular votes received by Christine Drazan in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. The percentage is divided into seven ranges: 0-24.99%, 25-29.99%, 30-34.99%, 35-39.99%, 40-44.99%, 45-49.99%, and 50-100%. Resolution uses only certified/official results, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate trader expectations, fundraising data, endorsements, and real-time campaign momentum. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous information flow and financial incentives to forecast accurately. For the Oregon Republican primary, market prices may lead or lag polls depending on whether traders believe public surveys underestimate or overestimate Drazan's support. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in dynamics polls have not yet captured.
The market resolves on May 19, 2027, following the Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count for Christine Drazan as reported by Oregon election authorities. The outcome will reflect her final vote share or vote-range placement depending on the specific contract terms. Traders should monitor official election results and any recount or certification processes that may affect the final determination.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Oregon Republicans, fundraising reports, and shifts in voter registration or early voting patterns. Media coverage of Drazan's policy positions, primary challenger momentum, and turnout expectations will influence trader positioning. Polling releases, internal campaign data leaks, and late-breaking controversies can trigger sharp price moves. Additionally, changes in the broader political environment or unexpected candidate withdrawals could reshape the primary race and alter market expectations for Drazan's final vote share.
