TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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OpenRouter AI token usage in October
kalshi

What will OpenRouter AI token usage be in October?

Volume:
$67,266

Above 675T tokens

 - Kalshi

Above 675T tokens - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 675T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,776
N/A
N/A
$403
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 550T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,215
N/A
N/A
$2,658
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 450T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,484
N/A
N/A
$2,476
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 500T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,361
N/A
N/A
$2,361
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 575T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,188
N/A
N/A
$674
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 625T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 600T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 650T tokens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 850T tokens

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,458
N/A
N/A
$1,794
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 750T tokens

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,194
N/A
N/A
$1,263
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 700T tokens

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,235
N/A
N/A
$1,105
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 800T tokens

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,164
N/A
N/A
$1,098
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks the volume of tokens processed by OpenRouter AI services during a specific month in 2026. The resolution depends on whether usage surpasses various high thresholds, offering different levels of certainty about future demand. Each market corresponds to a distinct usage benchmark, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of AI activity intensity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on OpenRouter's publicly reported AI token usage for the period from September 28 to October 25, 2026, as recorded in their AI Model Rankings. The resolution will occur at 10:00 AM ET on October 26, 2026, using the official token count for the specified UTC calendar days. 'Token usage' refers exclusively to metrics published by OpenRouter and does not include total token activity across other AI platforms or providers. Each market has a unique threshold (ranging from 450T to 850T tokens); if the reported usage exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with OpenRouter, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenRouter token usage market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $6,873, and the total volume traded to date is $67,265. Traders on Kalshi are expressing their beliefs about the total OpenRouter token usage in October through these prices, which dynamically adjust based on buy and sell orders. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how the market is evolving and where traders see the most value.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating real-time data and nuanced insights that analysts might miss. If analysts predict a specific range for OpenRouter token usage, this market allows traders to express disagreement or confirmation through their buy and sell decisions, leading to a price that represents the aggregated view. Discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty or differing interpretations of available information.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood of the outcome. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the future and capitalizing on discrepancies between their beliefs and the market price.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total OpenRouter token usage for October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual token usage during that period, as reported by OpenRouter. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. The resolution process ensures transparency and objectivity, relying on publicly available data to determine the final result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major announcements from OpenRouter regarding new integrations, partnerships, or protocol changes could impact token usage. Significant shifts in the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly for Ethereum, could also influence demand for OpenRouter tokens. Unexpected developments in the AI landscape, such as breakthroughs in specific AI models or increased adoption of AI services, could drive increased usage of OpenRouter for accessing those models. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.