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419,492

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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's share be by Nov 4, 2026?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$0N/A

Above 12.3%

 - Kalshi

Above 12.3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:10h:57m

OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 12.3%

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 86¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 12.3%

Trade
N/A
N/A
33¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 12.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
37¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 13.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
48¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 14.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 15.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 15.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
11¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 16.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 17.3%

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
kalshi

Above 18.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
12¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 57m
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI development resources allocated to a specific technology provider by leading research institutions on a particular date. It reflects potential trends in infrastructure preferences among top AI labs, illustrating how industry choices might shift over time.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs on November 4, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. The determining value will be captured at 10:00 AM ET on November 5, 2026, using the updated chart data. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the measured share exceeds the specified percentage (12.3%, 12.7%, 13.1%, 14.0%, 15.0%, 15.5%, 16.4%, 17.3%, or 18.9%), the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all brand names referenced remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI Vercel spend market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, reflecting what traders believe about OpenAI’s share of spend with Vercel on November 4, 2026. You can view the price history to see how sentiment has shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0, indicating the level of interest in this question. This provides a dynamic view of expectations surrounding this specific technology spend.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding OpenAI’s future spending. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often provides a unique perspective, potentially incorporating information not readily available in traditional analyst reports. If analysts predict a certain level of spend, it will be interesting to observe whether this market reflects similar expectations or diverges based on different assumptions about the competitive landscape and technological advancements. This market offers a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static analyst predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders bid and ask to buy or sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The current price indicates the implied probability of OpenAI’s spend share reaching various levels with Vercel by the resolution date.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on determining OpenAI's share of spend with Vercel on November 4, 2026, as reported by Vercel. The exact methodology for calculating this share will be outlined in the market’s documentation on Kalshi. Traders should review these details to understand how the final outcome will be determined and verified.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from OpenAI or Vercel regarding their partnership, changes in their respective product roadmaps, or broader shifts in the AI infrastructure landscape could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected competitive pressures, such as the emergence of a strong alternative to Vercel, could also move the market. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors impacting tech spending and overall investment in AI will likely play a role. Any news impacting the perceived strategic importance of Vercel to OpenAI’s operations could lead to notable price changes.