TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of spend on Nov 2, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's share be by Nov 3, 2026?

Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$13,095
Volume 24h:
$13,071N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$12,976
64,778%

Above 12.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 12.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 09h:48m:40s

OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 12.7%

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 12.7%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,161
0%
N/A
$2,161
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 12.2%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,003
0%
N/A
$2,003
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 11.9%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,001
0%
N/A
$2,001
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 11.6%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,004
0%
N/A
$1,004
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 15.5%

Trade
7%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$159
564%
N/A
$155
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 14.4%

Trade
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,262
0%
N/A
$3,152
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 14.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,505
0%
N/A
$2,499
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 16.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9h 48m
Active
kalshi

Above 17.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9h 48m
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI development resources allocated to a specific technology provider by leading research institutions during a defined period. It reflects potential shifts in infrastructure preferences within advanced artificial intelligence projects, offering insight into evolving technical strategies among top-tier labs.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for November 2, 2026. The share will be measured and rounded to one decimal place. Resolution occurs at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026, using the updated chart value for November 2, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the measured share exceeds the specified percentage (11.6%, 11.9%, 12.2%, 12.7%, 14.0%, 14.4%, 15.5%, 16.4%, or 17.9%), the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI Vercel spend market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $12,930 and the total volume traded to date is $13,095. You can see how the market is pricing the probability of different outcomes for OpenAI's share of spend with Vercel. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market sentiment and activity, allowing you to monitor changes in expectations over time. This is a key resource for anyone following this specific market.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts on OpenAI’s spending with Vercel. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who have a financial stake in the outcome. While analysts may focus on specific financial models, this market aggregates diverse viewpoints and adapts quickly to new information as it becomes available.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. The current market indicates what traders believe is the likelihood of different spending levels.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding OpenAI’s reported spend with Vercel as of November 2, 2026. The exact determination will rely on verified information from reliable sources, ensuring an objective assessment of the actual spending figures. The market will then settle based on whether OpenAI’s share of spend falls above or below the specified thresholds.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major announcements from OpenAI or Vercel regarding their partnership, changes in the competitive landscape of AI infrastructure, or shifts in overall cloud spending trends could all impact trader sentiment. Significant technological breakthroughs in AI or cloud computing could also influence expectations about future spending. Furthermore, any news related to regulatory scrutiny of OpenAI or Vercel, or broader economic conditions, could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.