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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's request share be?

Volume:
$14,428

Above 20.3%

 - Kalshi

Above 20.3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 20.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,286
N/A
N/A
$2,286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 25.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,819
N/A
N/A
$1,819
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 23.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,719
N/A
N/A
$1,719
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 27.4%

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,750
N/A
N/A
$1,750
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30.0%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,750
N/A
N/A
$1,750
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 28.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,704
N/A
N/A
$1,704
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 27.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,700
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 31.3%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,700
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.1%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI processing requests handled by OpenAI through the Vercel platform on a specific future date. It reflects potential shifts in how leading research institutions choose to execute their AI tasks, indicating preferences for particular service providers. The outcome depends entirely on measured usage statistics from that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on October 6, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. Kalshi will determine the final value at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026, using the updated chart data for the previous day. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the measured share exceeds the specified percentage (ranging from 20.3% to 31.3%), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical measurement methodology and disclaimers regarding affiliations with Vercel, with all branding remaining property of respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You’ll find a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of different outcomes for OpenAI’s share of requests in October 2026. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $14,328 and the total volume traded is $14,428. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity around this specific prediction.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, analysts are offering a range of predictions regarding OpenAI’s future market share, but this market allows traders to express their own views, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not yet fully considered by traditional analysis, or vice versa. It’s a fascinating way to gauge overall confidence in OpenAI’s trajectory.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for OpenAI’s request share. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic and evolving price discovery process. This creates a real-time forecast of what participants believe will happen.

This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Vercel’s data regarding OpenAI’s share of requests processed through their platform during the specified timeframe. The exact methodology for calculating this share will be publicly available from Vercel, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the final result of this market. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new models, partnerships, or pricing changes would be key catalysts. Developments in the competitive landscape, such as advancements from Anthropic or Google, could also impact trader sentiment. Broader economic conditions and regulatory changes affecting the AI industry are additional factors to watch. Any news impacting Vercel’s platform usage or its relationship with OpenAI could also influence trading activity in this market.