What will OpenAI's request share be?

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, analysts predict a wide range of potential outcomes for OpenAI’s market share in 2026, with estimates varying significantly based on different growth models and competitive landscapes. This market allows traders to express their own informed opinions, potentially diverging from or aligning with those forecasts. The aggregated wisdom of the crowd often provides a unique perspective, distinct from individual expert assessments, and can be a valuable signal for understanding future possibilities.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market continuously adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of OpenAI’s future request share.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Vercel will publish data on the share of requests handled by OpenAI’s models on October 22, 2026. The market will settle based on that publicly available data, representing the proportion of requests processed by OpenAI relative to all requests handled by Vercel. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, based on verifiable information released by the source.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major announcements regarding OpenAI’s model development, such as the release of GPT-5 or significant improvements to existing models, would likely impact trading activity. Competitive pressures from other AI providers, like Google or Anthropic, and their respective model releases, are also key catalysts. Furthermore, broader economic conditions, regulatory changes affecting AI, and shifts in developer preferences could all influence the perceived likelihood of OpenAI maintaining or increasing its request share. Any news impacting Vercel’s platform usage could also drive movement.