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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's request share be?

Volume:
$15,747

Above 18.6%

 - Kalshi

Above 18.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 18.6%

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,094
N/A
N/A
$3,081
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 19.8%

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,909
N/A
N/A
$2,104
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,498
N/A
N/A
$1,498
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 23.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,495
N/A
N/A
$1,495
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 21.7%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,444
N/A
N/A
$1,443
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 22.6%

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,407
N/A
N/A
$1,407
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI processing requests handled by OpenAI through the Vercel platform on a specific future date. It reflects potential shifts in how leading research institutions choose to deploy their AI models, indicating possible trends in platform preference or infrastructure strategy.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on October 18, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. The determining value will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on October 19, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold—ranging from 18.6% to 26.8%—and resolves to 'Yes' only if the measured share exceeds its specific threshold. All markets operate independently, meaning a single request share can simultaneously satisfy multiple thresholds or none at all. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official association with Vercel, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $15,535 and the total volume is $15,743. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, giving you a sense of where traders are placing their bets. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding OpenAI's share of requests in 2026, as determined by Vercel data.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market can reflect a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not yet captured by analysts. If analysts predict a specific percentage for OpenAI’s request share, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what degree. Discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement about the future trajectory of AI adoption and market dynamics.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The current price indicates the market’s collective expectation for OpenAI’s request share on October 18, 2026, as reported by Vercel. Traders can adjust their positions based on new information and changing expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Vercel will publish the data for OpenAI’s share of requests on October 18, 2026, and this data will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will settle based on the percentage of requests handled by OpenAI as reported by Vercel, providing a clear and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new models, partnerships, or pricing changes would likely impact trader sentiment. Developments in competing AI technologies, such as advancements from Google or Anthropic, could also shift expectations. Broader economic trends, shifts in cloud computing demand, or regulatory changes affecting AI development could also influence the market. Any news that alters the perceived trajectory of OpenAI’s growth or market position has the potential to cause price fluctuations.