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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 12, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's request share be?

Volume:
$19,546

Above 22.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 22.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 22.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,547
N/A
N/A
$1,541
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 19.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,535
N/A
N/A
$1,535
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 28.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,381
N/A
N/A
$4,296
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24.9%

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,241
N/A
N/A
$2,021
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,213
N/A
N/A
$2,213
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.8%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,167
N/A
N/A
$2,167
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 27.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,922
N/A
N/A
$1,922
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,801
N/A
N/A
$1,801
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24.4%

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,740
N/A
N/A
$1,697
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI processing requests handled by OpenAI through the Vercel platform on a specific future date. It reflects potential shifts in how leading research institutions utilize different AI service providers for their computational needs. The outcome depends on the measured usage share at a set time after the event date.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on October 12, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. Kalshi will determine the outcome at 10:00 AM ET on October 13, 2026, using the updated chart value for the previous day. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the measured share exceeds the specified percentage, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, and each threshold represents a different level of OpenAI's market penetration through Vercel on that date. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, giving you a sense of where the crowd is placing its bets. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $19,505 and the total volume is $19,546. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding OpenAI's share of requests on Vercel as of October 12, 2026.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than individual analysts. However, analysts may have access to proprietary data or specialized knowledge not reflected in the market price. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding OpenAI’s future performance and its share of requests on Vercel.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the implied probability of a specific outcome occurring—in this case, OpenAI’s share of requests on Vercel. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth, indicated by the volume of orders at different price levels, also influences price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Vercel’s publicly available data regarding the share of requests handled by OpenAI as of October 12, 2026. The specific percentage will be determined by the data released by Vercel, providing a clear and objective assessment of OpenAI’s performance. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new models, partnerships, or pricing changes would likely have a substantial impact. Developments in competing AI technologies, particularly those offered by other providers, could also shift the market. Unexpected regulatory changes affecting AI deployment or data privacy could also play a role. Finally, any news regarding Vercel’s infrastructure or its relationship with OpenAI would be closely watched by traders.