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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 10, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI's request share be?

Volume:
$34,890

Above 19.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 19.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 11, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 19.5%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,281
N/A
N/A
$2,211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 22.4%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,257
N/A
N/A
$6,121
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 29.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,391
N/A
N/A
$3,839
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 27.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,622
N/A
N/A
$1,619
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 27.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,556
N/A
N/A
$1,556
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 26.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,500
N/A
N/A
$1,444
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 25.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,477
N/A
N/A
$1,472
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 28.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,455
N/A
N/A
$1,450
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 24.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,351
N/A
N/A
$1,351
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI processing requests handled by OpenAI through the Vercel platform on a specific future date. It reflects potential shifts in how leading research institutions utilize different AI service providers for their computational needs. The outcome depends on the measured usage distribution at a set time after the date in question.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on October 10, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. Kalshi will determine the outcome at 10:00 AM ET on October 11, 2026, using the updated chart value for that day. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the measured share exceeds the specified percentage (ranging from 19.5% to 29.4%), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, with each threshold representing a separate condition for resolution. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $34,890 and the 24-hour volume is $25,253. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes fluctuates over time, providing insight into where traders are placing their bets. This allows you to gauge market sentiment regarding OpenAI’s share of requests relative to other providers as we approach the resolution date.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating real-time data and anticipating shifts in sentiment. While analysts may provide specific projections, the market aggregates the views of many participants, creating a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding OpenAI’s future request share.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust, providing a real-time signal of market sentiment. The closer we get to Oct 11, 2026, the more responsive the prices will be to new information and trading activity. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of the most likely scenario.

This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Vercel will publish data on the share of requests handled by OpenAI on October 10, 2026, and this data will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will settle based on the percentage of requests attributed to OpenAI, as reported by Vercel, providing a clear and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 11, 2026. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new model releases, pricing changes, or partnerships could influence trader sentiment. Similarly, significant developments from competing AI providers, such as advancements in their models or changes in market share, would likely impact the market. Broader economic trends, shifts in regulatory landscapes surrounding AI, and even unexpected technological breakthroughs could also play a role in shaping the outcome of this market.