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Science and Technology
OpenAI share of requests on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What will OpenAI’s share be on Nov 4, 2026?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$52
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$52
100%

Above 18.3%

 - Kalshi

Above 18.3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:15h:24m

OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.3%

60%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 60% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 18.3%

Trade
60%
Yes 77¢No 37¢
14¢
N/A
$18
0%
N/A
$18
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 21.4%

Trade
23%
Yes 26¢No 76¢
2¢
N/A
$34
0%
N/A
$34
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 16.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 17.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 18.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 19.3%

Trade
N/A
N/A
18¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 19.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 20.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
18¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
kalshi

Above 22.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 24m
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI processing requests handled by OpenAI through the Vercel platform on a specific future date. It reflects potential shifts in how leading research institutions choose to deploy AI models, indicating possible trends in infrastructure preferences or strategic partnerships within the AI development community.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on November 4, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. The determining value will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on November 5, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold—ranging from 16.6% to 22.4%—and resolves to 'Yes' only if the measured share exceeds its specific threshold. All markets operate independently under these consistent measurement and timing rules, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with Vercel throughout.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $52 and the total volume is $52. You can see how traders are pricing the probability of different outcomes for OpenAI’s share of requests on Vercel, and review historical price movements to understand market sentiment. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes this market will land, offering insights into expectations surrounding AI service usage.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for OpenAI’s request share on Vercel in 2026. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of various outcomes. If analysts predict a significantly different share than what is priced into this market, it could present an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on discrepancies in expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for OpenAI's request share. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the market's expectations. Traders are actively setting the odds based on their own research and insights.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Vercel’s data regarding the share of requests handled by OpenAI's models relative to other AI providers. Specifically, the market will determine the percentage of AI Gateway requests processed by OpenAI across the top AI labs. The final share will be determined by publicly available data from Vercel, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new model releases, pricing changes, or partnerships could impact its request share. Similarly, developments from competing AI labs—such as Anthropic or Google—could shift demand and affect OpenAI’s position. Broader economic trends, regulatory changes impacting AI deployment, and even shifts in developer preferences could also influence trading activity in this market. Any news that alters perceptions of OpenAI’s competitive advantage or overall market demand for its services is likely to cause price fluctuations.