TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

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OpenAI market share this week
kalshi

What will OpenAI's market share be?

Volume:
$165,604

Above 17.8%

 - Kalshi

Above 17.8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 17.8%

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,139
N/A
N/A
$19,446
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 17.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,749
N/A
N/A
$9,806
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 15.8%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,225
N/A
N/A
$5,609
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 14.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,917
N/A
N/A
$5,062
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.4%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,751
N/A
N/A
$3,916
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 16.9%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,652
N/A
N/A
$3,827
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 11.1%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,183
N/A
N/A
$3,183
5d 10h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above 19.3%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,649
N/A
N/A
$24,370
5d 10h 46m
No
kalshi

Above 21.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,340
N/A
N/A
$16,544
5d 10h 46m
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the weekly usage performance of a specific AI model provider during a defined period. The outcome depends on whether the provider's share of text generation requests surpasses various thresholds. Results are drawn from independently published usage statistics for a single week.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on OpenRouter’s publicly reported text market share data for model author OpenAI for the week of September 21, 2026. The resolution occurs at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the reported week, using values rounded to one decimal place. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 11.1% to 21.7%); if OpenAI’s share exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes. If OpenAI’s share is not separately identified in the source data—or is grouped under a collective category like “Others”—all markets resolve to No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with OpenRouter or the governing benchmark, and all referenced trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenAI market share market displays the current odds, reflecting what traders believe about the outcome. It also provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. You can view the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $70,069, indicating the level of recent trading activity. Total volume for this market is $165,604. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about buying or selling contracts.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on company reports and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential future events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about technological advancements, competitive pressures, and regulatory changes impacting OpenAI. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own opinion about the likely outcome of this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices based on their expectations. Contracts are priced between 0 and 100, representing the probability of the event occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity, creating a dynamic and responsive market for forecasting OpenAI’s market share.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding OpenAI’s market share during the specified period. The precise methodology for determining market share will be based on industry-standard metrics and data sources, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential developments.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from OpenAI regarding new products, partnerships, or financial performance would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in the competitive landscape, such as the emergence of a strong rival AI model, could also shift sentiment. Regulatory developments, including new laws or guidelines governing AI, represent another potential catalyst. Finally, broader economic trends and investor confidence in the technology sector could influence trading activity in this market.