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OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
polymarket

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Volume:
$43,059

60%+

 - Polymarket

60%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Feb 27, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$13,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

45%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether any OpenAI GPT model will reach a 60% score threshold on the FrontierMath Exam, a rigorous mathematics benchmark. On Polymarket, the leading outcome carries a 65.0% probability, while a higher 70% threshold outcome stands at 17.5%. Resolution will be determined by Epoch AI's Frontier Math leaderboard for Tier 1-3 benchmarks, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source. Watch for OpenAI model submissions and score updates on the Epoch AI leaderboard leading up to the June 30, 2026 deadline.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The Odds & Prediction Markets dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time probability estimates for whether any OpenAI GPT model will achieve at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam by Jun 30, 2026. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and trading volume to help you monitor market sentiment. You can observe how traders are pricing this outcome as new information about OpenAI's model capabilities and benchmark performance emerges. Total group volume across this event stands at $43,059, reflecting active trader interest in this artificial intelligence milestone.

On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract: Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects trader expectations about OpenAI's model advancement and benchmark performance by the resolution date. Prices fluctuate based on new model releases, benchmark results, and technical developments in large language models. Traders buy YES contracts if bullish on OpenAI's mathematical reasoning capabilities, or NO contracts if skeptical, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating market confidence in the outcome.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, establishing a final deadline for determining whether the outcome has occurred. Resolution hinges on official FrontierMath Exam results published by the benchmark administrators, specifically whether any OpenAI GPT model achieves at least 60% on the test. The outcome is binary: either the threshold is met or it is not. Traders should monitor OpenAI announcements, benchmark publications, and model release dates leading up to the resolution window to assess the likelihood of success.

Key catalysts include new OpenAI model releases or capability announcements, particularly any GPT versions optimized for mathematical reasoning. Publication of FrontierMath benchmark results for competing models provides context for OpenAI's likely performance. Technical breakthroughs in reasoning or symbolic mathematics, industry research papers, and OpenAI's official statements about model development timelines can shift trader expectations. Interim benchmark scores or leaks, changes in AI safety or deployment policies, and broader AI industry developments may also influence market pricing as traders reassess the probability of achieving 60% by Jun 30, 2026.