TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether OpenAI's average token price will exceed specific thresholds on a set date, using data from an independent tracking platform. Each threshold represents a different price point that, if surpassed, triggers a positive outcome for that market.
All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported average price per million tokens for OpenAI on August 14, 2026, at 10AM ET. The resolving value uses Ornn's most recent settled print as of that time, which typically reflects data from the prior calendar day due to Ornn's 12-hour settlement lag after each day's UTC close. Post-expiration adjustments to the underlying data are disregarded, and all valuations use the USD iteration of the index, rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a distinct threshold; if the reported price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders continuously update the probability of different price outcomes for OpenAI's average token price by Aug 21, 2026. The current implied chance reflects the collective assessment of market participants, with prices adjusting dynamically based on new information, trading volume of $969, and shifts in sentiment around OpenAI's token economics and broader market conditions.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by averaging the token’s trading value over the appropriate period, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process aligned with publicly available data.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves on Aug 21, 2026. Announcements from OpenAI regarding token supply, demand drivers, or pricing changes would directly impact expectations. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, regulatory updates affecting token sales or usage, and macroeconomic factors influencing investor appetite for new digital assets could also cause significant movement in this market as the community refines its outlook.