TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Science and Technology
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 16, 2026
kalshi

What will open vs closed token volume be?

Volume:
$64,932

Above 49.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 49.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 17, 2026

Closed: Oct 17, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 49.4%

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,190
N/A
N/A
$3,190
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 56.1%

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,281
N/A
N/A
$17,246
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 69.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,685
N/A
N/A
$7,394
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,952
N/A
N/A
$5,117
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 61.6%

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,733
N/A
N/A
$5,255
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 69.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,394
N/A
N/A
$5,060
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55.1%

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,722
N/A
N/A
$4,478
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,542
N/A
N/A
$3,338
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 73.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,432
N/A
N/A
$3,988
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of open versus closed token usage in AI systems on a specific date, reflecting trends in transparency and accessibility within AI development. The outcome depends on whether this proportion exceeds certain thresholds, indicating varying levels of openness in AI technologies deployed that day.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for October 16, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds, with multiple markets each defining a different threshold for resolution. All markets use the same data source: the Open Weights percentage from Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart, measured at 10:00 AM ET on October 17, 2026. If the recorded percentage meets or exceeds the threshold defined for a specific market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Each market’s threshold varies, ranging from 49.4% to 73.8%, allowing participants to bet on different levels of openness in AI token usage for that day. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the open weights token market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $39,827 and the total volume is $64,932. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market sentiment and activity, allowing traders to quickly assess the state of play for this specific event.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as opinions on the future of open weights tokens vary widely. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse perspectives and can provide a different signal than traditional polls or expert opinions. If analyst forecasts consistently diverge from the implied probabilities shown in this market, it could indicate that traders possess unique information or have a different interpretation of available data. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect changing expectations. The current market price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if a specific outcome is realized regarding open weights token volume.

This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the relative volume of open weights tokens traded versus closed weights tokens during the specified period. The exact methodology for determining the outcome will rely on publicly available data sources and established standards for measuring token volume. Traders should review the market details on Kalshi for complete information regarding the resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding the development or adoption of open weights tokens, such as partnerships with large organizations or breakthroughs in AI research, would likely cause price movements. Regulatory changes concerning cryptocurrency or AI could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrency or AI investments could influence trading activity in this market. Any news that affects the perceived value or future prospects of open weights tokens has the potential to shift the odds.