TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 14, 2026
kalshi

What will open token volume be by Oct 14, 2026?

Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 22, 2026, 11:31 AM EST
Total volume:
$31,919
Volume 24h:
$27,514
633%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$26,169
358%

Above 44.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 44.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 22, 2026

Time left: 07d:10h:55m

Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Oct 14, 2026 be above 44.7%?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 69% Illiquid market 7 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 44.7%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$1,929
64,200%
N/A
$1,929
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 49.4%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,929
0%
N/A
$1,929
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 51.2%

Trade
99%
17%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$1,922
3,559%
N/A
$1,816
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 56.2%

Trade
1%
54%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$10,169
10,192%
N/A
$7,277
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 72.2%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,431
118%
N/A
$3,831
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 65.1%

Trade
1%
23%
Yes 55¢No 100¢
55¢
N/A
$3,533
140%
N/A
$3,115
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 63.0%

Trade
1%
24%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,022
1,016%
N/A
$2,170
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 67.9%

Trade
1%
14%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$2,734
584%
N/A
$2,267
1w 10h
active
kalshi

Above 60.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$2,250
2,127%
N/A
$1,835
1w 10h
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of open versus closed token usage in AI systems on a specific date, reflecting trends in transparency and accessibility within AI development. The outcome depends on whether this proportion exceeds various thresholds, offering insights into industry practices around open-source AI components.

Kalshi

All markets in this event series resolve based on the Open Weights percentage reported in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart for October 14, 2026, measured at 10:00 AM ET on October 15, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold—ranging from 44.7% to 72.2%—and resolves to 'Yes' if the reported percentage exceeds its respective threshold. The markets are independent, with each evaluating a different benchmark for open token usage. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the open weights token market tracks the current odds of whether the volume of open-weight tokens will exceed a certain share. You can view the price history, which shows how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour volume, currently at $26,844. The total volume traded on this market is $31,919. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the future share of open-weight tokens relative to closed-weight tokens as of October 14, 2026.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the open weights token ecosystem. However, a general consensus among analysts suggests continued growth in the open-source AI space, which would imply a higher share for open-weight tokens. If analysts widely believe open weights will dominate, we would expect to see the odds shift towards the 'above 60.9%' outcome. Discrepancies between this market and analyst opinions could signal opportunities for informed traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants regarding the probability of the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price is solely determined by trading activity on Kalshi and isn't influenced by any other venue or external factors. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the actual share of volume represented by open-weight tokens on October 14, 2026. The share will be determined by publicly available data regarding token trading volume and will be assessed against the 60.9% threshold. The outcome will be based on verifiable data and is not subject to subjective interpretation.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding the development or adoption of open-weight AI models would be key catalysts. Regulatory changes affecting the use of open versus closed-weight tokens could also cause substantial shifts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI technology favoring one approach over the other would likely move the market. Finally, significant investment flows into or out of the open-weight token space could also influence trading activity and, therefore, the odds in this market.