TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Science and Technology
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 12, 2026
kalshi

What will open vs closed token volume be?

Volume:
$25,058

Above 43.9%

 - Kalshi

Above 43.9% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 43.9%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,492
N/A
N/A
$2,600
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 48.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,997
N/A
N/A
$1,595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 52.7%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,397
N/A
N/A
$1,397
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 57.2%

View
0%
67%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,723
N/A
N/A
$5,689
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67.6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,370
N/A
N/A
$2,591
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 63.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,770
N/A
N/A
$2,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 71.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,448
N/A
N/A
$2,448
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,411
N/A
N/A
$1,800
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 61.2%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,451
N/A
N/A
$1,451
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of open versus closed token usage in AI systems on a specific date, reflecting trends in transparency and accessibility within AI development. The outcome depends on whether this proportion exceeds certain thresholds, offering insight into industry practices around open-source AI models.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) on October 12, 2026, using data from Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart. All markets resolve based on the same data point, measured at 10:00 AM ET on October 13, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold—ranging from 43.9% to 71.1%—and resolves to 'Yes' if the measured open weights percentage exceeds its specific threshold. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and the result for each depends solely on whether the recorded value surpasses its designated level. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official connection with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates a diverse range of opinions into a probabilistic forecast. If analysts generally predict a specific outcome, we would expect to see higher trading volume and increasing odds for that outcome on Kalshi. However, discrepancies can arise due to factors like information asymmetry, differing methodologies, or simply the wisdom of the crowd identifying overlooked factors. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations and can offer valuable perspectives.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds continuously adjust based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the cost to enter a position predicting a specific outcome. As more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price to buy into that outcome increases, and the price to sell decreases. This creates a liquid market where participants can express their beliefs and hedge against risk.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the relative volume of open versus closed token weights on October 12, 2026. The percentage share of open weights tokens will be calculated and compared to the market’s threshold levels. The market will settle to 100 if the open weights share is above the threshold, and 0 if it is below. The precise methodology for calculating the share will be determined by Kalshi and made publicly available prior to resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Major announcements regarding the development or adoption of open weights tokens, such as partnerships with large AI companies or regulatory changes, would likely have a substantial impact. Shifts in the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, particularly regarding decentralized technologies, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, news related to the security or scalability of open weights platforms could drive price movements. Any event that alters the perceived value or viability of open weights tokens is likely to be reflected in the market’s odds.