TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Science and Technology
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 4, 2026
kalshi

What will open/closed token volume be?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 12, 2026, 11:31 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$0N/A

Above 58.2%

 - Kalshi

Above 58.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 12, 2026

Time left: 09d:17h:23m

Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 4, 2026 be above 58.2%?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% High Projected APY: 6,913% 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 58.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 59.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 64.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 65.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 67.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 68.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 70.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
12¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 74.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
kalshi

Above 75.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 17h
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of open versus closed token usage in AI systems on a specific date, reflecting potential shifts in transparency practices within AI development. The outcome depends on whether this proportion exceeds certain thresholds, offering insight into industry trends toward open or closed AI models.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for November 4, 2026, exceeds specified percentage thresholds. Resolution is based on the Open Weights percentage displayed in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart, measured at 10:00 AM ET on November 5, 2026. Multiple markets exist with escalating threshold requirements, each resolving to 'Yes' if the measured percentage surpasses its respective threshold. All markets share identical data sources and timing, ensuring consistent evaluation across varying benchmark levels. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.