TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Open source token share Oct 19–25 (OpenRouter)
kalshi

Open source token share Oct 19–25 (OpenRouter)

Volume:
$9,206

Above 71%

 - Kalshi

Above 71% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 71%

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$694
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 69%

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 70%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$157
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 72%

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 68%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 76%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,833
N/A
N/A
$1,010
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 74%

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,590
N/A
N/A
$439
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 75%

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,233
N/A
N/A
$836
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 73%

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,059
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the performance of open-weight models on a platform that processes AI-generated tokens over a specific week. The outcome depends on whether these models meet or exceed certain processing thresholds, reflecting their adoption and usage trends during that period.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the weekly token-processing share of open-weight models on OpenRouter during the week of October 19, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from above 68% to above 76%. If the reported percentage of tokens processed by open-weight models exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The determining percentage is taken from OpenRouter’s Open / Closed weekly chart, reported at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the relevant week, and rounded to one decimal place. All markets share these resolution mechanics, differing only in their threshold percentages. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with OpenRouter, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the OpenRouter token share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different outcomes shifts over time, giving you a sense of market sentiment. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $3,708 and the overall volume is $9,206. This provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on the potential outcome of the token share distribution, all within Kalshi.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than a single analyst might consider. If analysts are predicting a high probability of a specific outcome, but this market shows lower odds, it could indicate disagreement or the inclusion of factors not accounted for in the analyst’s model. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of available data or varying levels of confidence in future events.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand pushing prices up and increased supply driving them down, ultimately establishing a clear market consensus.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual token share distribution as publicly announced by OpenRouter. The process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the final outcome, as determined by the publicly available data at the time of resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcements from OpenRouter regarding the token share distribution process, changes to the allocation schedule, or updates on the number of eligible participants could all impact trading activity. Broader market sentiment towards OpenRouter or the overall crypto ecosystem could also play a role. Unexpected news related to the project’s development or partnerships could also shift expectations and influence the odds in this market.