TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Gentner Drummond, ≥3%
- Kalshi
Gentner Drummond, ≥3% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 2, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 2, 11:11 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the competitive strength of Gentner Drummond in a key primary election, focusing on how decisively he might win against his nearest rival. The outcome hinges purely on the size of his victory margin, reflecting voter support and electoral dynamics.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the margin of victory Gentner Drummond achieves in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff. A margin is calculated as Drummond’s vote share minus that of his nearest competitor. Positive margins indicate a win for Drummond, negative margins a loss, and zero a tie for first place. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold: 3%, 6%, 9%, 12%, or 15%. If Drummond’s margin meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the respective market resolves as Yes; otherwise, it resolves as No. Margins are evaluated inclusively at the lower bound and exclusively at the upper bound, with no rounding applied. Votes for Drummond across multiple parties or listings are aggregated to determine his total vote share.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may emphasize traditional polling data and historical trends, traders are incorporating a broader set of variables, including recent campaign performance and economic indicators. This divergence can highlight underappreciated factors or emerging shifts in voter sentiment that aren’t yet captured in conventional polling averages, making this market a valuable complement to traditional analysis.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous trading, adjusting bids and asks based on new information and expectations about the election outcome. The current top outcome reflects the most likely margin range as assessed by market participants, with liquidity and volume influencing how quickly prices adjust to breaking news or polling updates. This mechanism allows for rapid price discovery tailored to the specific dynamics of the Oklahoma Governor runoff.
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially certified and reported by credible public sources. The margin of victory will be calculated based on the final, verified vote counts, ensuring that the market settles against an objective and widely accepted benchmark. Traders should monitor official election announcements and authoritative news outlets for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could shift this market in the coming weeks, including key polling releases, candidate debates, economic announcements, and any major campaign developments such as endorsements or controversies. Unexpected events like voter turnout surges or logistical challenges on election day may also influence trader sentiment. As the election nears, real-time news and shifting public opinion will be the primary drivers of price movements on this market.
