TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 22, 2026?
kalshi

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 22, 2026?

Volume:
$447,766

Above $90.49

 - Kalshi

Above $90.49 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 2:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $90.49

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52,738
N/A
N/A
$15,342
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $89.99

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,332
N/A
N/A
$16,978
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $89.49

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31,867
N/A
N/A
$18,562
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $88.99

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,226
N/A
N/A
$14,180
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $88.49

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,279
N/A
N/A
$12,561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $90.99

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,244
N/A
N/A
$18,055
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $91.49

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43,174
N/A
N/A
$16,261
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $91.99

View
0%
66%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,150
N/A
N/A
$11,299
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $92.49

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,046
N/A
N/A
$9,856
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $92.99

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,515
N/A
N/A
$9,562
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $93.49

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,168
N/A
N/A
$4,713
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $93.99

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,610
N/A
N/A
$4,386
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $94.99

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,897
N/A
N/A
$6,119
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $97.99

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,585
N/A
N/A
$5,979
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $95.49

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,153
N/A
N/A
$4,902
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $96.49

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,273
N/A
N/A
$3,400
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $94.49

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,266
N/A
N/A
$4,100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $98.99

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,703
N/A
N/A
$5,655
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $100.49

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,655
N/A
N/A
$5,544
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $97.49

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,038
N/A
N/A
$4,935
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $98.49

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,854
N/A
N/A
$3,410
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $102.49

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,651
N/A
N/A
$3,651
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $95.99

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,511
N/A
N/A
$2,412
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $100.99

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,452
N/A
N/A
$3,423
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $102.99

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,018
N/A
N/A
$3,001
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks whether the WTI crude oil settlement price will be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on September 22, 2026. Currently, the leading outcome – that the price *will* be above this threshold – has a 99.0% probability on Kalshi. Resolution will be based on the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil (November 2026 contract) as reported by the exchange. Keep a close watch on the OPEC+ meetings scheduled throughout 2026, as production decisions announced at those meetings will likely significantly impact oil prices leading up to the September 22, 2026 resolution date.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the daily settlement price for the November 2026 WTI crude oil contract on September 22, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward two business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest cent, and missing data is resolved using the most recent available published value. All markets share these consistent secondary rules, with each primary rule defining a unique price threshold for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a view on the future WTI oil price that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market prices and those from polls or expert opinions, as markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This market reflects the collective wisdom of those willing to put capital behind their beliefs about future oil prices.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of the event happening. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their expectations about future oil prices, creating a dynamic and efficient market for forecasting. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants trading in this market.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on that date will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the 'above' or 'below' outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from established sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.

Numerous factors could influence the price of oil and, consequently, move this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are significant catalysts. Economic indicators, like global economic growth or recessions, also play a crucial role, as demand for oil is closely tied to economic activity. Unexpected supply disruptions, technological advancements in energy production, and even shifts in global energy policies could all impact trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.