TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 28, 2:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the WTI crude oil settlement price will be above 76.49 USD per barrel on July 28, 2026, on Kalshi, resolving based on the September 2026 contract price. The current probability for the leading outcome is 94.0%. Watch for the market resolution on July 28, 2026, which will determine the settlement based on the daily price of the September 2026 contract.
Each market outcome is determined by whether the daily settlement price for the WTI crude oil September 2026 contract on July 28, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold, ranging from $81.49 to $95.99 per barrel. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward two business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, and if data is unavailable for the specified date, the most recent published data is used for resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and fundamental data, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news and short-term signals, which can lead to tighter or divergent odds depending on recent events.
This market resolves around Jul 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual WTI oil price as recorded on that date, providing a clear and objective resolution for all participants.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including geopolitical developments affecting oil supply, changes in global demand due to economic shifts, and key decisions from major oil-producing organizations. Natural disasters or unexpected production issues could also create volatility, influencing trader sentiment and shifting odds on Kalshi as new information emerges.