TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 2:30 PM EST
Kalshi
The future price of WTI crude oil is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market speculation. Tracking its settlement price on a specific date allows stakeholders to assess market expectations and economic indicators for that period.
The market resolves based on the daily settlement price of the WTI crude oil October 2026 contract on August 21, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, with one market resolving to Yes if the price falls within its designated bracket. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places for resolution. If pricing data is unavailable on the specified date, the most recent published data is used to determine the outcome. The ranges progress from below $69.00 USD/Bbl up to above $93.99 USD/Bbl, ensuring comprehensive coverage of potential price outcomes.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a broader set of expectations, incorporating real-time trading activity and sentiment. While analysts may publish target price ranges or scenario analyses, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust their positions based on news, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments, which can lead to faster shifts in implied probabilities.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official WTI oil price as recorded on that date, closing all positions based on the price that is publicly confirmed at that time.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including OPEC+ production decisions, unexpected supply disruptions, changes in global demand due to economic shifts, and geopolitical tensions affecting key oil-producing regions. Each of these events may cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their expectations, potentially widening or narrowing the spread and altering the top outcome’s implied chance on Kalshi.